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27 June 2025 by [email protected]

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NAB profiles future economic reality

  •  
By Owen Holdaway
  •  
5 minute read

Despite improvements in the global economy, there are investment concerns over the Australian mining sector and the future implications for the Australian economy.

 At NAB's recent Private Wealth Management conference in Sydney, chief economist Alan Oster pointed to deep concerns.

"Last year everyone thought the world was going to end, particularly in Europe ... there is not necessarily a lot of difference between this year and last year ... but, I think what people are most convinced of are that we are not going to go back to a GFC equivalent," he said. 
 
Essentially, NAB see an element of stabilisation in Europe, some positive equity and housing signs in the USA, and a return to strength in China, which in turn should have a knock-on effect onto the rest of Australasia.

"The main drag is Europe," Mr Oster said, but added Europe is not the whole picture. "It is a mixed world, not a bad world," he said.

 
 

Australia is exposed to this but one of its main problems is internal, according to Mr Oster.

"We are very close to the end of the phase of (mining) investment ... So there will be a structural change," he said.

"One of the things the Reserve Bank desperately wants to see are signs of non-mining investment filling the hole."

The Australian economy is due for a slight slowing, but it is likely to be a very soft landing, particularly when looked at through the prism of the anaemic economic growth in other parts of the developed world, according to NAB.

Key for investors is managing this 2013 to 2014 transition, and equity exposure is one area of future growth. NAB also reiterated the higher return potential of growth assets such as shares over traditional defensive assets, like cash and government bonds.

Interestingly, speaker Giselle Roux, JBWere chief investment officer, said the driver of this equity growth was "less likely to be regional and more likely to be driven by some well-to-do company dynamics".

She advocated a sectoral spread to portfolios and having a look for "stock specific outcomes".

Another reason she gave for equity growth was that the "corporate sector is actually in very strong financial health" with many of the S&P fortune 500 companies in particular aflush with cash.

But this was not to overlook Australian companies, she said.

"We are starting to see our corporate sector looking at some cost cutting and looking at rationalisation," Ms Roux said, and cautioned investors not to be dismissive of domestic opportunities.

What does this mean for your fixed income exposure? She advised managers to keep an active holding as a buffer.

"They will act as a diversifier and dampener to some of the volatility that we are likely to experience," she said. But going into 2013, fund managers should be more active in their fixed interest portfolio, she added.