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29 August 2025 by Maja Garaca Djurdjevic

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Carbon tax: winners, losers

  •  
By Tony Featherstone
  •  
6 minute read

Understanding how the carbon tax affects different industries and companies is a key issue for investors.

Most focus has been on the losers from the tax: the big emitters of greenhouse gases such as the resources and utilities sectors.

But some industries have much to gain.

Business forecaster IBISWorld this week produced a timely report on the likely industry winners and losers from the federal government's Clean Energy Plan.

It predicts the services side of the economy will benefit most.

 
 

The main losers are less surprising.

The electricity generation sector, which accounts for about 32 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions in Australia, is most affected.

The initial price of $23 per tonne of carbon dioxide will cost the industry $4.53 billion in 2012-13, IBISWorld says.

Another key carbon dioxide emitter, the resource sector, is also heavily affected.

The Minerals Council of Australia estimates that carbon pricing will cost the sector $25 billion by 2020, and the Australian Coal Association predicts the carbon price will cause 4000 job losses.

The metals manufacturing sector, at least, will benefit from subsidies and grants designed to mitigate the tax's effect.

The Federal Government's Job and Competitiveness Program provides $8.6 billion in assistance over the first three years of carbon pricing.

The construction sector will be hit hard, even though it emits less carbon dioxide directly compared to sectors such as mining.

IBISWorld said the price of building products could rise between 1 and 3 per cent this financial year, with the highest increases for energy-intensive production such as clay, bricks, cement and concrete.

Energy and labour costs in the construction industry will also rise.

The transport sector is also affected by carbon pricing.

It accounted for 16 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions in 2011, despite only producing 5 per cent of economy activity.

IBISWorld said in its Clean Energy Plan and Australia's Industries report:

"These changes will effectively increase the cost of fuel for transport industries, making fuel-efficient modes of transport, such as rail and water transport, relatively more competitive within the constraints of current infrastructure."

The carbon tax could have mixed results in retailing over three to five years.

Shopping centre management costs will rise because of higher energy bills, and centre owners are expected to pass most of the extra costs on to tenants.

Small business generally should feel little material affect from the tax, IBISWorld said.

Some retailers, however, will benefit from extra spending from low and middle-income earners, who receive government compensation that more than offsets higher living costs from the carbon tax.

The tax's introduction and eventual acceptance might also reduce some consumer anxiety and uncertainty after months of fierce political debate about its merits.

IBISWorld believed professional service firms could see a small revenue boost as demand increases for advice on issues related to the carbon tax.

"New services relating to changes in the tax system, defining responsibility for carbon emissions, building environmental sustainability strategies and renewing company images as 'green operators', will create new revenue streams for the sector."

The public relations industry could see a small lift in annual revenue as more Australian businesses attempt to 'green-wash' their image.

Environmental science firms will benefit as companies look for technological solutions to reduce their carbon emissions.

As always, accounting firms will be the biggest winners in the services sector, IBISWorld said.

Every organisation affected by the tax will require extra accounting services and describes the tax as the biggest shake-up to the accounting sector since the GST was introduced in 2001.

The law industry will also benefit as Australia's top 500 polluters seek legal advice on new compliance requirements.