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Emerging markets resist upgrades: Maiora

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6 minute read

Some markets are clinging to their status as emerging markets, a global macro manager says.

Several emerging markets are resisting reclassification as developed markets, despite displaying nearly all of the characteristics of a developed market, according to Maiora Global Macro.

"Most of the countries in Asia are resisting being upgraded to developed market status," Maiora chief investment officer Lucas Weatherill said.

Taiwan and South Korea were among the most resistant countries because they were among the largest emerging markets, Weatherill said.

"In equities, [South Korea is] begging to stay in the emerging markets index," he said.

 
 

"For them, they are a very small fish in a large pond; Korea is the biggest emerging market.

"If they are put in developed market status, they would be a rounding error in the index.

"They would rather be the focus of a smaller number of emerging market managers, rather than not focused on at all by a very large number of developed market managers."

Taiwanese and South Korean authorities have been actively restricting access to their markets, in particular to the trading of their domestic currencies.

In June, index provider MSCI concluded a review of its global indices and said Taiwan and South Korea - while they met many criteria, including economic development, market size and liquidity - still did not classify for developed market status.

"Despite important positive developments on the provision of stock market data, the Korean authorities have made little progress on other significant accessibility issues," it said.

"In particular, limitations in currency trading and equity settlement across multiple accounts remain unchanged and prevent for now a reclassification of the MSCI Korea Index to developed markets."

China is also known for restricting access to its markets, but Weatherill said the country had not been considered a developed market because it was highly fragmented.

"China is a little different because there are so many different markets," he said.

"You have A-shares, the B-shares, the H-shares and the S-shares, if anyone counts those. There are a lot of ways to play it and they all differ in value."

The prevailing emerging market status meant those markets were still relatively poorly covered by analysts, which provided opportunities, he said.

He said his global macro fund had a strong bias towards Asia, in particular corporate bonds.

"Asia provides extraordinary value for money compared to the rest of the world," he said.

"Partly it is because they are under-researched markets and that reflects the fact that there are very few Asian countries in global benchmarks."

He said he also found opportunities in unlisted, illiquid assets, including debt finance of oil rigs in the South China Sea.

The investments are not as exotic as they sound.

"The oil rigs are nearly all made in Singapore, while the debt has a mortgage over the oil rig and the oil that flows from it," Weatherill said.

"On a two to three-year bond you can get a return of 10 per cent a year."

Maiora - named after the Latin phrase Ad Maiora, meaning in pursuit of excellence - was established in 2010 by Weatherill, an Australian who previously worked at Deutsche Bank Asset Management Asia-Pacific as head of fixed income and chief strategist.

The Singapore-based firm is partly owned by Hong Kong-based Oriental Patron Investment Management, which provides it with a distribution network in Asia through its platform.

Weatherill was in Sydney earlier this week to speak with potential clients.