The list of potential buyers of Axa Asia Pacific's (Axa AP) North platform has been cut down by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).
The decision followed comments from the regulator's chairman Graeme Samuel that only an acquisition by a player with sufficient distribution capacity could make a difference.
Although analysts have previously suggested that National Australia Bank (NAB) could find a buyer in the IT or even private equity space, it is now clear the bank will have to find a competitor in the wealth management industry for the platform.
"I think his comments reduce the possible list to AMP and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ)," Credit Suisse diversified financials analyst Arjan van Veen said.
But it is unlikely either company would be willing to buy the platform.
AMP has indicated it is still interested in taking over Axa AP, after its failed acquisition attempt late last year.
It would, therefore, be unlikely to clear the way for NAB by buying North.
"Why would anyone think AMP will assist NAB in this takeover?" a source familiar with the transaction said.
ANZ has said on several occasions it would focus on the integration of ING Australia and its Asian expansion, rather than making acquisitions in Australia.
However, the acquisition of the North platform would be a relatively small transaction, looking at recent deals.
"IOOF paid $34 million for Skandia and Intech. My thought would be that it would be well below this number," van Veen said.
IOOF itself has also been named as a potential buyer, although Samuel's comments seem to rule the company out.
"We are a listed entity, so we don't comment on market rumours," an IOOF spokesperson said on Friday.
