Copper futures on the COMEX jumped as much as 17 per cent, reaching an all-time high of US$5.90, after the White House announced the tariff would come into effect on 1 August.
Financial markets had anticipated copper would face a similar 25 per cent tariff as steel and aluminium, making the announcement a significant shock.
“The latest wave of last-minute import activity is expected to trigger a broad-based rally in global copper prices, as an already tight supply landscape faces renewed pressure,” said Global X investment strategist Justin Lin.
The WIRE ETF – Australia’s only listed fund offering exposure to global copper miners – has seen a sharp uptick in flows as investors position for ongoing supply constraints and strong demand.
“We have seen strong inflows into WIRE over the past three months ever since Liberation Day as investors bet that copper demand will be resilient despite tariff-related economic risks,” Lin said.
“Q2 flows into WIRE was the strongest quarter of flows since the third quarter of 2024, the lead-up to US elections, reaching a total $23.7 million, compared to just $3.2 million in the first quarter and 2025 and $2.7 million of outflows in the fourth quarter of 2024,” he said.
WIRE gives investors access to a global basket of copper miners, with many large producers listed outside Australia.
“The best way for local investors to get exposure to copper miners is through an ETF. The biggest copper miners are all listed on offshore exchanges so there are very few local opportunities for Australians to invest in copper miners,” Lin said.
Global supply-demand dynamics are also contributing to market tension.
The United States produced 850,000 tonnes of copper in 2024 but consumed around 1.6 million tonnes, according to Global X data – meaning that as much as half must be imported either now or at tariff-affected prices.
“US copper premiums are likely to widen even further from already elevated levels as domestic buyers are now incentivised to continue importing copper even at premiums ranging from approximately 25 per cent to 35 per cent above global prices, compared to an average premium of around 10 per cent over the past six months,” Lin said.
Earlier this week, data from exchange-traded fund (ETF) providers revealed defence and precious metals have emerged as the strongest-performing ETF sectors over the past six months, fuelled by rising geopolitical tensions and a global flight to safe-haven assets.
The Global X Defence Tech ETF delivered a 51.74 per cent return year-to-date, according to figures from both Global X and Betashares.
Interest in defence – which has surged since Donald Trump returned to office in the US – now accounts for more than half of all thematic ETF flows listed in Australia.
Global X data shows defence ETFs have attracted $253 million in net flows so far this year, while globally, the category has drawn more than $20 billion – a sign of growing investor appetite for the sector.
“As NATO formalises its 5 per cent defence spending of GDP target and member nations begin implementation, we expect increased visibility and capital flows into the sector, driving continued revenue and earnings growth and potential multiple expansion,” Global X said.
“The market has taken notice with defence-related companies having a strong start to the year, led by the likes of Rheinmetall and Palantir Technologies. As a result, the defence sector has emerged as one of the best-performing segments in the market so far in 2025.”
Coming in second on the ladder of top-performing ETFs year-to-date was the Betashares Global Gold Miners Currency Hedged ETF, which climbed 48.43 per cent, as the precious metal surged on safe-haven demand amid US tariffs and escalating conflict in the Middle East.
More broadly, the Australian ETF industry ended the financial year at another record high – $280 billion in total assets under management – up 97 per cent compared with the same period last year.
