Powered by MOMENTUM MEDIA
investor daily logo

Dollar for dollar

  •  
By Reporter
  •  
4 minute read

The Australian dollar has done something rather unexpected. It has gone up against the greenback and won.

On 15 October, the Aussie dollar reached parity with the US dollar for the first time since becoming a freely traded currency in 1983.

After many ceased their jumping up and down with delight, the parity result for the dollar opened up new avenues for Australian investors as well as providing potential challenges.

For some, the surge in the Australian dollar no doubt meant giving their credit card a bit of a working over, with eBay accounts once dormant given a reboot and returned to life.

Such consumer spending would no doubt be good for international economies, though local retailers have pleaded for money to stay at home.

==
==

In financial circles, the message appears to be clear - now is the perfect time to buy offshore with a long-term purpose.

A colleague of mine recently returned from an investment briefing where a fund manager championed the cause for global equities.

The fund manager in question said it was the right time for Australian investors to take advantage of the power of the Aussie dollar and buy global equities rather than buy sneakers or spend money heading off on holidays.

Outside of sneaker purchases, the strong local dollar is also likely to have an effect on Australia's interest rate status.

In Chan & Naylor chief executive Sal Carrero's view, the strong dollar is likely to weaken any interest rate plans.

"The Australian dollar is the highest it has been since the floating of the dollar 27 years ago, which has consequences for the broader economy," Carrero said.

He said the cost of imported consumer products would decrease due to the stronger buying power of the currency.

"Everything ranging from cars to electrical appliances to grocery items could experience price falls as a result of the dollar," he said.

He said the surging currency would also make it harder for Australian exporters as the cost of exported products became less competitive.

"It also has an impact on the tourism sector, which is a major source of export income for the country and regional economies. This will impact small to medium enterprises in regional economies," he said.

HSBC chief economist for Australia and New Zealand Paul Bloxham agreed.

"We think the appreciation of the [Australian dollar] seen so far is not enough to change our forecast for a 25 basis points rate rise by end-year," Bloxham said.

"We expect this hike to occur in November, but will be watching the CPI (27 October) and credit data (29 October) closely to firm up that view. We still expect rates to rise by another 100 basis points over 2011, though further appreciation of the exchange rate could start to dampen that expectation.

"Of course, if the exchange rate depreciated sharply from here, which would likely reflect a negative global shock, it would be necessary to reassess the interest rate forecasts."

The local dollar has dipped slightly since 15 October (at time of printing it stood at 99.15 cents against the US dollar). Only time will tell as to whether Australians continue their offshore shopping spree in retail or investments.

Hopefully, for the savvy investor, sneaker sales will soon turn into Nike shares.