Zerocap said the recent bitcoin pullback, which saw the asset drop below US$100,000, stems from a confluence of macroeconomic pressures, leveraged market dynamics and shifting investor risk appetite.
The trading firm said it is viewing the dip as a rebalancing of the market rather than a structural break.
Head of sales Mark Hiriart said the sharp correction in US equities this week, driven by concerns over elevated valuations - particularly in tech - and doubts about the sustainability of the post-election rally, has spilled over into crypto.
“Historically, November has been BTC's strongest month, but this "healthy correction" (down ~9-10 per cent from the US$110k peak) aligns with patterns seen in prior cycles, where post-euphoria dips precede stronger legs up,” he said.
Over US$2 billion in crypto liquidations hit the market over 24–48 hours into Wednesday, primarily from over-leveraged long positions in perpetual futures.
“This created a cascading effect, exacerbating the downside as stop-losses were triggered around the US$105,000–$107,000 range,” Hiriart noted. “This contrasts with the strong inflows seen earlier in 2025, pointing to a rotation of capital away from crypto amid uncertainty.”
As a result, net outflows from bitcoin spot ETFs and funds accelerated, signalling profit-taking after the post-US election surge and causing bitcoin to fall under US$100,000 for the first time since June.
“This marks a four-month low and tests the psychological US$100k support level.”
Hiriart said short-term, it could be a local bottom if buyers defend here, with on-chain data showing accumulation at these levels and historical bounces from 50-week EMAs (near US$98k–$102k) suggesting resilience.
According to Hiriart, there’s a risk of further downside if US$100k fails, however.
“Projections range from US$96k (next Fibonacci support) to as low as US$72k by year-end in a prolonged risk-off scenario, per bearish models,” he said.
Zerocap said momentum indicators hint at a bounce but macro headwinds - such as a stronger US dollar - could push bitcoin to US$89,000–$90,000, the critical average breakeven point which would prompt ETF investors to exit.
“We're not calling a capitulation yet, but position sizing is crucial.
“This feels like the "shakeout" phase of the bull market; dips like this have historically been buy opportunities for long-term holders.”
In October, investors were hit by one of the largest crypto liquidations in history, when over US$19.3 billion was wiped from the market in hours, with BTC falling as low as US$104k just days after setting a record high above US$126k.
“We are also starting to see some of the fallout of October 10th … Having been in financial markets for nearly 20 years, I would suspect there is some contagion still working its way through the markets, as recent price action does seem to rhyme with forced selling/liquidations,” Hiriart said.
“However, this also might not be the case, as it could just be a derisking due to recent Fed comments and there is no actual ‘boogeyman’ out there.”
Binance’s general manager for Australia and New Zealand, Matt Poblocki, said the movements are part of normal market cycles, where investors are pausing to reassess amid macro uncertainty rather than step away from the asset class entirely.
“As adoption grows and participation broadens, the crypto industry continues to build on its long-term foundations, demonstrating resilience and steady progress over time,” Poblocki said.
However, BTC Markets believed the plunge below the US$100,000 mark isn’t just a price dip - it’s a signal the market may be entering a new phase.
“After holding firm through US$43 billion in long-term holder distribution, bitcoin finally cracked under pressure, falling to a five-month low of US$99,600 and triggering US$1.8 billion in liquidations within 24 hours,” crypto analyst Rachel Lucas said.
She said institutional portfolios have been bruised since October’s crash.
“ETF outflows of US$1.34 billion over just four days, led by BlackRock’s $IBIT, suggest major players are heading for the exits, with demand now trailing mining supply for the first time in seven months,” Lucas noted.
BTC Markets said traders are now watching the US$88k to US$95k range as a potential bottom.
“With sentiment crashing into ‘extreme fear’ territory and the US Dollar Index surging past 100, macro headwinds are mounting.Technically, bitcoin’s breach of the 50-week moving average has historically led to deeper corrections. If history repeats, we could be staring down a test of the 200-MA, roughly a 55 per cent drawdown from the cycle top.”
Lucas said the 2021 bull market followed a similar pattern - a 55 per cent drop before rallying 134 per cent to its final peak.
The near-term path for crypto hinges on three key pressures, according to IG Market analyst Tony Sycamore: risk aversion flows, fading odds of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, and a resurgent US dollar.
“Until macro headwinds ease or a fresh catalyst emerges, crypto remains vulnerable to further aftershocks, with the mid $90,000's now a critical support for Bitcoin,” Sycamore said.
ETF Shares CIO David Tuckwell warned of another danger with potential to impact the asset.
“Bitcoin faces an existential threat from quantum computing, which threatens to break the cryptography that bitcoin's proof of work mechanism is built on and expose the whole network to hacking,” Tuckwell told InvestorDaily.
“Personally, I do not see the merit in holding bitcoins in an investment portfolio at this point in time.”
Despite the market dip, he’s unconvinced it marks the end of the bull run.
“Calling it a bear market is a little premature in my view. We'll have to wait and see how the price action plays out in the coming months.”
As for investors, Zerocap’s Hiriart said discipline is paramount in volatile drawdowns like this, as crypto’s leverage amplifies emotions and wild price swings.
“For those trying to play this market, it would be prudent to derisk position sizes and be very strict with any stop losses,” he said.
