Invoking the words of Mark Twain – “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes” – emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre of the Australian National University in Canberra, Hugh White, spoke of the collapse of the Berlin Wall and Soviet Union as the “disintegration of the bipolar global order”.
However, White told the audience during the Citi Investment Conference 2025 in Sydney that the real important event of the time was not just the fall of the infamous wall that split Germany between the Soviets and the Western world, but the rise of China.
“The rise of China is the most fundamental shift in the distribution of wealth and power globally since the Industrial Revolution, and it does, in a sense, change everything,” he remarked.
The immediate post-Cold War era expected to see the United States as the sole global superpower, dominating in all spheres, under a unilateral world order.
This, of course, has not materialised as expected, with China (and to some extent, Russia and India) beginning to challenge US dominance.
White argued that the world is now entering a multipolar or multilateral global order, reminiscent of earlier historical periods, but with “new players” – history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.
And while the US, according to White, is beginning to accept this transition, particularly under the Trump 2.0 regime, despite its reluctance to build the necessary mechanisms for multipolarity to function smoothly.
Joining White on the Citi panel, Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen emphasised that Australia’s geography places it in a strong position to adapt to these global shifts, provided it takes steps to enhance its self-reliance and leverage its unique geographic and demographic strengths.
“Beijing is closer to Berlin than it is to Sydney,” he said. “That is routinely forgotten in Australia’s defence debate, where you often hear that there is danger on our doorstep.
“Well, it’s a bloody big doorstep, if that’s true, because China’s a long way away, and geography protects us, because it’s very, very difficult to project lots of military power over long distances.”
The discussion also addressed the need for greater self-reliance.
“The additional step that we as Australians need to take is … we’ll need to do more for ourselves. And this is the mental step that Australian governments are left to take,” Roggeveen said, contrasting Australia’s approach with that of South Korea, where leaders have openly discussed the need for independent defence capabilities.
Moreover, Roggeveen expanded on the idea of declining hegemony in three forms: US strategic dominance, neoliberal economic ideology and the move away from liberal democratic principles.
Roggeveen argued that the United States no longer has “veto power” over strategic changes across Europe and Asia.
“The United States will always be a great power, but it’s no longer a hegemonic power in Europe, which is to say that it is challenged by other great powers.
“The Russians have demonstrated that … China’s doing that even more in Asia,” Roggeveen said.
On neoliberalism, Roggeveen argued that the “Washington Consensus” or globalism is no longer the uncontested economic model; while globalisation persists, the ideological dominance of neoliberalism has faded.
“The third hegemony on the decline is the hegemony of liberal democracy,” Roggeveen added. “It still remains [an] extremely powerful idea, particularly in Western countries, but it no longer has universal pretensions.”
He explained that liberal democratic ideas, institutions and principles are in decline, no longer standing as the leading form of political order in the world, sliding back towards a more managed democratic model or autocratic systems.
Both White and Roggeveen agreed that the world is now more contested, with no single power or ideology dominating.
This shift has profound implications for international relations, security and economic policy, requiring countries like Australia to rethink their strategies and become more self-reliant.
