The potential for a lasting peace deal between Gaza and Israel could reshape global investor sentiment, particularly across Middle Eastern markets, according to deVere Group CEO Nigel Green.
The tentative agreement, signed on 9 October 2025, had Israel and Hamas agreeing to a phased ceasefire and hostage exchange. The agreement would see Israel committing to a partial withdrawal from Gaza, while Hamas is set to release all remaining hostages within 72 hours of withdrawal.
Markets have long priced in war risk, Green stated, and should this agreement hold and stabilise the region, it could “ignite a considerable rally”.
Green suggested that Middle Eastern equities, global energy stocks, infrastructure and construction firms, plus logistics and financials, will benefit rapidly from a stable peace deal.
Moreover, with the war risk premium facing a potential collapse, Green anticipates investors to reallocate swiftly.
“The world has been conditioned to price in war risk for two years,” he said. “If the Trump-brokered deal marks a credible path to lasting peace, that risk premium collapses.
“Capital will flood back into markets that have been sitting in a holding pattern. Investors will chase early exposure to Gulf bourses, oil majors and global firms linked to regional rebuilding.”
Indeed, optimism has already reared, with Dubai’s market up roughly 1 per cent, along with increases in the Abu Dhabi market and Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul (by over 1.5 per cent).
Green observed that while these are early moves, they show “exactly how markets behave when geopolitical clouds start to clear”.
The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are expected to lead this prospective rally, leveraging their fiscal surpluses and sovereign wealth capital, according to the chief executive.
Lower volatility within the region and a more predictable supply of oil under a sustained ceasefire could also result in distinct gains for energy stocks.
“A sustained ceasefire could narrow the geopolitical risk premium in oil, tempering prices initially,” Green said. “Refiners, pipeline operators and renewables developers tied to Gulf diversification plans could all see strong inflows.”
The largest anticipated upside would reside in reconstruction-linked sectors, drawing “enormous demand for capital, materials and project management” should real reconstruction efforts be triggered as a result of the peace deal.
“Cement producers, steel firms, engineering companies and banks financing regional rebuilding will see a surge in activity,” Green said. “It could become the single largest reconstruction investment drive since the early 2000s.”
Beyond Gaza and the Middle East, Green argued that a “peace dividend” would improve confidence globally.
“We’ll see emerging market bonds compress in yield as geopolitical tension fades,” he said. “Asian and European markets tied to energy, construction and shipping will also rally as risk appetite strengthens.”
Green noted the timing of the agreement has amplified its impact as markets already expected further US rate cuts, meaning that this peace framework could be the catalyst for a broad risk rally.
“Cash-heavy institutional investors will rotate quickly out of safe assets into equities, sovereign bonds and high-yield plays.”
In addition to the global rally, Green has also predicted a psychological shift among investors.
“For the first time in years, peace in the Middle East would be seen not as a hope but as an investable event. The narrative flips from conflict management to growth acceleration.”
Green expects the first beneficiaries of any peace-driven rally to be energy infrastructure, transport and logistics firms, followed by banks, insurers and capital markets in the Gulf as reconstruction financing ramps up.
Industrials, materials and even consumer sectors could gain later as rebuilding and tourism pick up.
However, he cautioned that sustained market momentum depends on credible progress in enforcing the ceasefire and funding reconstruction. If peace efforts hold, he said, the rally could last for months and reshape global investment priorities.
