In the firm’s Economic conditions outlook, September 2025 report, six out of 10 surveyed executives pointed to changes in trade policy, including tariffs, as one of the greatest risks to global growth in their home countries and their own companies, followed by geopolitical instability and conflicts.
In the Asia-Pacific region, changes to trade policy and relationships are the most cited domestic disruption, with respondents in Europe, India and North America flagging the same level of concern.
While respondents in Greater China believe increased economic volatility is a top domestic risk. For those in developing markets, including central and South America and the Middle East, domestic political conflicts remain top of mind.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver believes Australia remains in a unique position when it comes to the impact of US-imposed tariffs.
“Only 5 per cent of our exports go to the US so the direct impact is minor. A bigger risk is a disruption to growth in our key trading partners in Asia due to US tariffs,” Oliver told InvestorDaily.
“So far this has been relatively minor given the pause in worst case US tariffs on China and other countries agreeing trade deals with the US.”
Expectations for the next six months are consistent with those from McKinsey’s June survey, with a larger share of respondents predicting declining conditions than improving conditions.
AMP is forecasting global growth to slow down to just below 3 per cent in the next six to 12 months.
“[This is] largely due to the uncertainty caused by US tariffs. However, with central banks still easing and other countries not retaliating with their own tariffs thereby avoiding a trade war, a global recession or deeper slowdown is unlikely,” Oliver said.
“The main risk is around the US where uncertainty around tariffs and other things appears to be weighing.”
There are several key domestic economic headwinds AMP will be watching closely over the coming months.
“Low consumer demand, some labour shortages, global uncertainty and still relatively higher interest rates,” Oliver said.
When it comes to global company growth, McKinsey noted changes in the trade environment as the most cited risk.
“When respondents were asked about the greatest opportunities for their companies’ growth, they infrequently point to changes in trade policy,” the report said.
Nearly two-thirds of survey respondents said their companies have made some degree of change to their business in response to shifts in US trade policy for the second consecutive quarter.
“Most commonly, respondents say their companies have conducted scenario planning or have adjusted their pricing. In Greater China, however, respondents report a wider range of changes than do respondents in other regions,” the report said.
“They’re more likely to report alterations to their supply chain, such as purchasing from new sources, as well as price adjustments, which are also more common in other developing markets.”
For the first time since September 2020, more than half of survey participants flagged their expectations that unemployment in their countries would grow over the next six months.
“Fifty-three percent of respondents expect an increase, up from 46 percent in the June survey,” the report said.
“While in every region, respondents are more likely to expect increasing rather than decreasing unemployment in the coming months, views vary by geography.”
Only one-third of executives reported confidence in their organisation’s ability to manage trade policy changes.
