Bitcoin has mostly held above the US$105,000 level but for a slight dip to around US$104,000 over the weekend, despite sharp market swings triggered by growing geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty, according to the co-founder of Coinstash, Mena Theodorou.
Trading around US$107,000 on Tuesday, bitcoin has demonstrated structural resilience, with analysts pointing to sustained institutional demand and over US$1.3 billion in net inflows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) across five consecutive days.
Theodorou said: “According to data from Farside Investors, the streak began on 9 June with US$386 million in inflows, continuing through Friday with an additional US$301 million. In total, more than US$1.3 billion of capital flowed into bitcoin ETFs during the five-day period.”
This follows a risk-off mood in broader markets due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, as well as fresh uncertainty surrounding the US–China trade agreement.
“Bitcoin’s ability to hold around the US$105,000 level despite ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty reflects underlying resilience and continued investor confidence,” Theodorou added.
Charlie Sherry, cryptocurrency analyst at BTC Markets, noted that although bitcoin dipped when the Iran–Israel conflict escalated, the recovery has been swift and technically significant.
“If bitcoin had continued lower from here, sub-US$100k would be in play. Instead, we’ve held the line, which points to structural strength in the market,” Sherry said.
Like Theodorou, Sherry highlighted strong ETF inflows – at over US$5.2 billion in May – and noted that bitcoin dominance remains elevated, indicating that investors have not exited risk entirely.
“The Fear & Greed Index is at 61, with 17 green days in the past month. While correlation with equities isn’t always immediate, S&P futures are opening in the green, and we could be looking at a more constructive week for risk assets overall,” he said.
“Bitcoin’s behaviour here isn’t textbook safe haven, but it’s certainly showing resilience.”
Speaking to InvestorDaily, Merkle Tree Capital co-founder and chief investment officer Ryan McMillin added that bitcoin is behaving as both a risk-off asset, with “qualities very similar to gold”, and a risk asset, reflecting its evolving role in diversified portfolios.
“We often see an initial sell-off during geopolitical tensions – bitcoin is highly liquid and one of the few assets that trades over weekends, so the first reaction is often to ‘sell’ in order to de-risk a portfolio,” he said. “This is typically compounded by the fact that escalations often occur on or over weekends.”
McMillin highlighted that bitcoin tends to recover when traditional markets reopen and more targeted trades can be made.
“Its non-sovereign nature, censorship resistance, high liquidity and scarcity make it a strong geopolitical hedge,” he said.
On the outlook for the cryptocurrency, McMillin said Merkle Tree expects bitcoin to continue trading “higher on the back of these qualities throughout 2025, as trade tensions and growth concerns drive global liquidity higher – lifting store of value assets with it”.
“Bitcoin passing $200,000 this year looks like a reasonable base case,” he said, citing rising global liquidity and growing corporate demand for store of value assets.
As at 1pm (AEDT) 17 June 2025, bitcoin stood at just over US$107,000.
