India is ideally placed for a "zero rates world" thanks to the country's substantial structural reforms and the closed nature of its economy, says Saxo Capital Markets.
The firm’s investment outlook for Q2 2015 forecasts that India is likely to experience significant economic growth due to favourable demographics – more than 50 per cent of the population is under 25 years old – and the nation’s capacity to benefit from cheap energy prices.
Saxo Capital Markets Asia's macro strategist, Kay Van-Petersen, said further reform implemented to eliminate 15-20 per cent of bureaucratic deficiencies would “unleash a huge flow of economic growth and prosperity”.
Compared to sluggish growth elsewhere, and potential negative investment returns, India is a “bright spot”, said Saxo Capital Markets.
On a global level, investors are likely to experience a period of zero or even negative returns, the firm said.
The strategy of protecting the stock market through “expanding price-earning multiples, QE, buybacks, falling inflation and a lack of alternatives ... is coming to an end,” it said in a statement.
Steen Jakobsen, chief economist of Saxo Bank, the parent company of Saxo Capital Markets, said, “The inability to move money from paper into the real economy remains the central issue and solution to the economic dilemma.
“The [European Central Bank’s] move into negative rates in 2014 could turn out to be the catalyst for change, especially since 35 per cent of all European government debt is now trading at negative yield.
“If you are a company, it is difficult to keep sales volumes going up when your consumers are not taking part in the recovery,” Mr Jakobsen said.
“The conclusion should be that an economic system which does not allocate capital to the highest marginal cost of capital, and which continues to support the one per cent versus the 99 per cent, ultimately comes full cycle to a point where the expected return of everything is zero again.”
Economists agree that the Reserve Bank is likely to remain in inflation fighting mode until December. ...