Australia’s jobless rate stayed at 4.3 per cent in November as employment, participation and hours worked softened.
Australia’s unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3 per cent in November, but fresh labour force data pointed to early signs of cooling momentum across the jobs market, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The ABS reported both employment and unemployment declined over the month, pushing the participation rate lower.
ABS head of labour statistics Sean Crick said the unemployment rate had held at 4.3 per cent in five of the past six months, despite a mixed set of movements underneath.
Total employment fell by 21,000 people in November, while the number of unemployed Australians slipped by 2,000.
The decline was driven by a sharp fall in full-time employment, which dropped by 57,000 people, including a 40,000 fall for males and 16,000 for females. Part-time work partly offset this, rising by 35,000, with most of the increase coming from females.
Crick said the shift contributed to a 0.2 percentage point fall in the participation rate to 66.7 per cent.
He noted employment had risen 1.3 per cent over the past year, lagging population growth of 2.0 per cent, with the employment-to-population ratio slipping to 63.8 per cent in November. Hours worked were steady over the month and up 1.2 per cent over the year.
Signs of underutilisation also grew as the underemployment rate lifted to 6.2 per cent, up 0.4 percentage points over the month, while the combined underutilisation rate rose to 10.5 per cent.
Crick said underemployed part-time workers seeking more hours had increased 5.9 per cent over the year, driven by a 17.0 per cent rise among males.
In trend terms, the picture was more stable with the unemployment rate edging down to 4.3 per cent, while trend employment increased by around 21,000 people, or 0.1 per cent, in November.
Monthly hours worked grew modestly in line with employment, and participation and the employment-to-population ratio were unchanged.
The ABS released its Labour Force Australia report as markets digested diverging global policy signals. VanEck head of investments and capital markets Russel Chesler said the steady unemployment rate suggested the labour market remained tight, even as productivity pressures shaped Australia’s broader economic outlook.
He said the figures were unlikely to alter expectations for the Reserve Bank’s rate path, despite notable contrasts with developments abroad.
“The divergence between the Australian and US economies has become more pronounced overnight, with the US Fed announcing its third rate cut for the year by 25 basis points,” Chesler said.
He added the local market reaction had been swift, with the ASX 200 rising 0.7 per cent in early trade and the Australian dollar moving towards US$0.67.
Chesler said movements at the long end of the yield curve suggested markets expected domestic inflation to firm, with 10-year Australian government bond yields reaching a new two-year high.
Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC economist at State Street Investment Management: “Today’s employment data signals that the Australian labor market is at an inflection point, highlighting the challenges the RBA will face in setting policy next year.”
“The surprise contraction in full-time employment, alongside softer participation and hours worked rate is concerning.
“While monthly figures have been volatile, the broader trend in annual changes to full-time employment remains cyclical and aligned with our expectations. Against this backdrop, we continue to anticipate that the Bank will maintain its current stance until clearer trends emerge.”
