Coller Capital founder Jeremy Coller predicts that the secondaries market could grow to US$500 billion in deal volume by 2030.
Activity led by limited partners (LPs) is climbing and secondary volumes are “pushing beyond previous highs”, he said in a white paper, supported by inflows from wealth platforms, sovereign wealth funds and insurance capital.
The increasing use of LP- and general partner (GP)-led transactions to address strategic investor needs is helping to cement secondaries as a core pillar of private markets.
Global deal volumes surpassed US$200 billion in 2025, a milestone the firm described as a “new high-water mark” while transaction volumes are expected to reach an estimated US$220-230 billion for the year, representing growth of more than 30 per cent year-on-year.
This rise was driven by a range of factors: “Persistent liquidity challenges among LPs, who increasingly turned to secondaries as a proactive portfolio management tool; the growing normalisation of GP-led continuation vehicles as an alternative to M&A and IPOs while these traditional exit options continued to be stalled; and strong institutional acceptance of these structures as strategic solutions, rather than event-driven exceptions.”
Further contributors included ageing private capital portfolios with weak distributions, a mounting backlog of unrealised assets, and the rise of evergreen and private wealth vehicles allocating fresh capital to secondaries strategies.
Liquidity constraints remained the dominant driver of dealmaking in 2025, with LP-led transactions climbing to US$110-120 billion, or about 54 per cent of total secondaries volume.
“LPs continue to face DPI (distributions to paid-in capital) shortfalls, prompting them to take control of their liquidity rather than waiting for GPs to exit assets. Sellers in the market consisted of endowments, foundations, family offices and asset managers (each represent roughly 20 per cent of the market), while public pensions accounted for a smaller share.”
Meanwhile, GP-led ones are on track to exceed US$100 billion in 2025 with one in six buyouts occurring via a GP-led deal compared to single-digit percentages a few years ago and 75 per cent of GPs saying they will participate in secondaries within the next two years.
The Coller Capital paper – Secondaries- Capitalising on the wave – stated structural shifts will further accelerate this secondaries growth going forward as well as innovations from AI-driven analytics and predictive pricing models.
“Predictive pricing models now allow investors to forecast transaction outcomes with greater accuracy, helping them make informed decisions about whether to sell, roll, or buy. Machine learning tools are enabling dynamic portfolio repositioning, tailoring strategies to specific liquidity objectives and market conditions.”
“As secondaries deal volume grows and transaction technology becomes more complex, AI-driven insights will become standard practice over the next several years.”
In the US, in particular, structural tailwinds are expected to help the secondaries market gather momentum in 2026.
“Tariff uncertainty is expected to remain a key macro driver, continuing to put pressure on portfolio company valuations and dampen traditional exit activity. This environment is projected to accelerate GP-led volume in the US as sponsors seek to hold assets until conditions stabilise.”
Coller concluded: “While the future is uncertain, one thing is clear: this is no passing ripple. When it comes to growth in secondaries, we may be witnessing the start of a powerful and sustained groundswell.
Deal backlog and CVs
Coller Capital also says the deal backlog heading into 2026 is double that seen in 2024, largely due to GP-led transactions that require longer execution timelines.
This has led to a prevalence of continuation vehicles (CVs) being used as a strategic solution to retain high-performing assets, maximise their upside and maintain stability in assets under management.
CVs work by fund managers moving a high-performing asset from an old fund into a new one which allows existing investors to ‘cash out’ their investment and new ones to contribute fresh capital to generate returns.
Coller said: “CVs allow managers to take another lap around with their best companies while providing liquidity to existing LPs. For investors, CVs offer flexibility when traditional exits are not an option.
“Rather than waiting for uncertain IPO or M&A windows to reopen, LPs can roll into a new vehicle to retain exposure, sell for immediate liquidity, or even increase their commitment.
“This optionality is critical for institutions facing a dearth in distributions and portfolio rebalancing pressures,” the firm said.
A change for 2026 will be those vehicles known as ‘CV-squared’, where a CV itself becomes the subject of a new CV or the use of a hybrid CV which combines preferred equity and debt.
