Nuveen’s Global Investment Committee outlined five themes shaping markets in 2026 amid uncertain growth, inflation and policy settings.
Nuveen’s Global Investment Committee has outlined five major themes expected to guide investment positioning in 2026, arguing that opportunities exist “above and below the radar” despite unsettled global growth, inflation and interest rate trends.
Chief investment officer Saira Malik said investing required “radar-like capabilities” as markets navigate slowing but solid growth, persistent inflation and policy uncertainty.
“Where might investors want to put cash to work? We see two main categories of opportunity,” she said.
These included “above the radar” ideas such as U.S. large caps and private credit, and “below the radar” opportunities including alternative credit and second-derivative trades linked to artificial intelligence.
The outlook noted strong but uneven global economic performance. Growth in the U.S., euro area and UK is expected to outperform consensus, while Japan and emerging markets should show sequential improvement.
China is forecast to decelerate at a “gentle, nondisruptive pace”. At the same time, expansive fiscal policy across major economies risks keeping inflation above target and sustaining upward pressure on long-term yields.
Nuveen warned that interest rate trends argue against extending duration, given rising term premiums and limited scope for major policy shifts.
The US Federal Reserve and Bank of England are expected to cut rates more modestly than markets currently price, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan may hike by late 2026.
The first of the five themes centred on maintaining exposure to US assets. Despite concerns about an AI-driven equity bubble, Malik said US megacap tech names were likely to retain leadership as investors continue to reward AI-related capital expenditure.
Broader US opportunities were also highlighted across private credit, asset-backed finance and private investment-grade bonds.
The second theme emphasised alternative credit and private equity as core allocations. Nuveen identified opportunities in senior loans, collateralised loan obligations, securitised assets, real estate and infrastructure debt. While acknowledging concerns about underwriting quality in parts of private credit, the report said “strong opportunities remain, particularly in middle-market direct lending”, with selectivity and deal structure increasingly critical.
The third theme pointed to municipals as a potential new bull market after prices began to rally in late 2025. Nuveen said municipal markets offered strong value, supported by steep yield curves, solid credit quality and easing supply.
Real estate formed the fourth theme, with the committee arguing the rebound is “just getting started”. After years of oversupply and weak demand, values improved throughout 2025.
Rising income returns are leading the recovery, with capital appreciation expected to follow.
Malik identified medical office, grocery-anchored retail and affordable housing as notable opportunities, even as the office sector remains under pressure.
The final theme explored “second derivative” trades from the AI boom and the global energy transition.
Nuveen pointed to opportunities in utilities, battery storage, energy transmission and infrastructure supporting escalating power and data demands.
It also highlighted broader risks, including pressure on power grids, water scarcity implications for data centres and the governance challenges created by rapid AI adoption.
Overall, the committee said its highest-conviction ideas span public and private markets, with a focus on diversification, liquidity management and capturing under-recognised opportunities.
“They’re our highest-conviction investment ideas, intended to help navigate market opportunities and risks, whether readily apparent or hidden from view,” Malik said.
