The information in this article was accurate at the time of publication (4pm AEDT 6/11/24)
Former president – and cryptocurrency advocate – Donald Trump has gained momentum as the frontrunner in the US election, with media outlets reporting that Trump leads in most swing states at the time of writing.
As the mood becomes increasingly optimistic towards a Trump win, bitcoin is rallying, surpassing its previous all-time high by rising more than 8 per cent throughout the day towards US$75,000.
Speaking to InvestorDaily, Magnet Capital co-founder Egor Sidelska described the scenario as “incredibly powerful”.
“As the numbers started to come in and the voters started to come in, you start to see this overwhelming positive sentiment for the Republican Party, like in areas that you typically wouldn’t have seen now,” Sidelska said.
“That is incredibly powerful. So people are basically latching onto that narrative, and crypto is going bananas at the moment … and that’s what you see in price movement.”
According to data from Magnet Capital, in the early afternoon, 193 “pro-crypto candidates” had been elected into the House of Representatives, compared to 97 “anti-crypto candidates”. In the Senate, the ratio at around 4pm on Wednesday was 13 to 5.
“So what we’re starting to see is those 75 million voters who happen to hold crypto … have been incredibly, incredibly powerful in this election, it’s playing out,” Sidelska said.
But while a Trump win is looking increasingly promising to traders, it is not yet assured.
In fact, Sidelska noted that if the election starts swinging more strongly towards Kamala Harris, bitcoin will have an immediate reaction.
“If Harris wins, bitcoin is coming down 15 per cent, it will come down. The rest of the market will come down further than that, because people’s expectations have been set in real time. It might even do more than that, it might come down 20 per cent,” he said.
“That’s just because people are now anchored to a Trump victory.”
While he believes that the crypto asset would likely suffer in the short term in the event of a Harris victory, the co-founder is confident that the asset would eventually see a mean reversion.
“So as long as Harris just stays the course, then we just go back to a mean reversion. If she is even remotely positive or actually, frankly, neutral, it’s extremely positive for our market,” he said.
According to digital asset exchange BTC Markets, it has seen a notable increase in trading volumes on Wednesday, particularly in $50,000+ trades, which have reached their highest levels since May 2024.
“This uptick in market activity suggests growing investor interest, with many positioning themselves ahead of potential political shifts,” BTC Markets said.
“Adding to the positive sentiment for crypto is the shift in political dynamics in Ohio, where Bernie Moreno (R) is leading and poised to unseat Sherrod Brown (D), one of the most vocal anti-crypto figures in Congress.”
As one of the largest critics of digital assets, BTC Markets said that Brown’s potential defeat is being seen as a win for the crypto industry, further boosting market optimism.
“Trump’s strong polling numbers and the growing momentum in swing states have led to a significant reduction in betting odds for Kamala Harris, suggesting that the market is already factoring in the likelihood of a Trump win.”
Is BTC on track to reach six figures?
With markets increasingly pricing in a Trump victory, Mena Theodorou, co-founder at crypto exchange Coinstash, believes that today’s bitcoin surge is only the beginning.
“With these factors in play, the path to $100K is in sight,” Theodorou said.
Similarly, Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro, agreed that the cryptocurrency is now in price discovery, with the momentum from this expected to potentially carry bitcoin into six-figure territory within a matter of months.
“Although bitcoin is sitting at record highs, it really feels like this rally could just be getting started. This bull market has a lot of weight behind it, and that could keep driving the asset higher,” Gilbert said.
He added that appetite from institutional investors continues to grow at a time when interest rates are set to fall sharply and risk assets are gaining more traction.
“This record high could also be the driver that brings retail interest back to the ‘euphoria’ levels we’ve seen in previous cycles, that the asset class hasn’t quite experienced this year.”
