Bitcoin reached a recent high of US$110,530, marking a significant milestone in what analysts describe as a structurally driven rally rather than a speculative bubble.
According to Rachael Lucas, cryptocurrency analyst at BTC Markets, the current uptrend is underpinned by institutional demand rather than retail FOMO.
“ETFs and corporate treasuries are playing a significant role in creating sustained buying pressure that wasn’t present in earlier bull markets,” Lucas said.
“Exchange activity may be slowing, but behind the scenes, institutional participation is ramping up.”
Namely, a US$54.5 million leveraged long position recently injected fresh momentum, pushing bitcoin towards key resistance, while support has remained intact at US$105,500, indicating a solid base for continued gains.
Lucas noted strong long-term conviction from major players, such as Strategy – formerly MicroStrategy – which recently expanded its holdings to 582,000 BTC. Meanwhile, Japan’s Metaplanet is aiming to raise US$5.4 billion to add bitcoin to its balance sheet, and the Blockchain Group has announced a US$342 million raise for the same purpose.
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) activity has also contributed significantly, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) hitting US$70 billion in assets under management in record time.
Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs have posted US$837.5 million in inflows over 15 consecutive days.
Lucas also highlighted Nasdaq’s move to expand its cryptocurrency index to include XRP, Solana, Cardano and Stellar, as clear signs of growing mainstream acceptance of digital assets.
“These are significant structural changes to how capital flows into crypto,” Lucas said.
Macro conditions have further supported the bitcoin rally, she said, pointing to global policy shifts, including US–China trade talks in London. Additionally, regulatory developments, such as Hong Kong’s collaboration with Chainlink on CBDC testing and the UK lifting its ban on retail cryptocurrency ETFs and exchange-traded notes, have signalled increasing regulatory maturity.
Lucas added: “Crucially, the current cycle appears to be evolving into what some are calling a ‘supercycle’, characterised by shallower corrections of 20 to 40 per cent, compared to historical drawdowns of 80 per cent.”
Mena Theodorou, co-founder at cryptocurrency exchange Coinstash, also linked recent bitcoin gains to resumed US–China trade talks.
“If negotiations progress … bitcoin could potentially push to break through to new all-time highs,” he said, adding that US President Donald Trump’s unpredictability on tariffs, along with persistent inflation concerns, have created volatility into equity and bond markets.
If talks break down, however, Theodorou said a risk-off sentiment could return, moving investor funds from cryptocurrency into more defensive assets.
Justin Arzadon, Betashares’ head of digital assets, agrees with market sentiment that suggests bitcoin’s strong run can largely be attributed to macroeconomic tailwinds as well as increasing adoption of digital assets by institutional investors and corporate entities.
“Given all the macroeconomic uncertainty occurring in the United States following the announcement of Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, there continues to be a positive narrative around bitcoin and the crypto industry more broadly,” Arzadon said.
He pointed to the addition of Coinbase to the S&P 500, the passage of the GENIUS Act in the US Senate and Circle IPO’s 160 per cent rise on the first day of trading as clear indicators of the growing maturation of the sector.
“We expect this trend to continue over the long term,” he said.
Institutional adoption and growing regulatory clarity propelled bitcoin to a record high on Bitcoin Pizza Day last month, after the digital asset slumped to $74,000 in April.
At the time, James Quinn-Kumar, director of community engagement at Binance Australia and New Zealand, said bitcoin is “no longer just for early adopters or crypto ‘whales’”.
“Bitcoin has become a strategic asset for institutions, companies and everyday investors alike. This milestone firmly cements its place in the financial mainstream.”
Australian ETF provider Global X recently upgraded its year-end price target for bitcoin from US$150,000 to US$200,000.
In a statement in May, Global X investment strategist Justin Lin said institutional confidence, a favourable Trump administration, and global de-dollarisation trends are all converging to support bitcoin’s ascent.
“Recent geopolitical developments and global investor diversification away from US dollar-denominated assets such as US Treasuries have elevated bitcoin’s status as a non-sovereign alternative,” Lin said.
Edward Carroll, head of global markets and corporate finance at MHC Digital Group, is even more bullish, forecasting that bitcoin could hit US$1 million by 2030.
“We firmly believe BTC is increasingly decoupling from its correlation to risk assets and beginning to behave more like an independent, reliable asset allocation – particularly in times of uncertainty,” Carroll said.
“With a fixed supply dynamic and growing demand driving the price higher in the medium term, we see significant upside from here.”
For her part, Lucas noted that while projections for bitcoin vary widely: “In the near term, a break and hold above US$111,000 could open the door to US$120,000.”
As at 1pm (AEDT), bitcoin stood at just under US$110,000.
