The impact of a default by debt-laden Greece has been largely factored into the market, according to wealth management firm MLC.
MLC said in an investor update that while it was hard to determine what the effect of a Greek default would be on sharemarkets, investors knew that it was a possibility.
“The market has known for a long time now that Greece has a high probability of defaulting and therefore has, to a large extent, factored this in,” MLC said.
“While it’s no guarantee that the market won’t experience more volatility should Greece actually default, some of the impact on global markets has already occurred.”
MLC said Greece’s debt levels are unsustainably high because it is a small country.
However, the fact that Greece is small should also be of some comfort to investors.
“There are other countries in Europe like Germany and France who can actually absorb Greece’s debt, and help soften the impact of Greece’s default on global sharemarkets,” MLC said.
MLC also said that while it was difficult to predict where the Australian dollar was headed, it is now closer to “normal levels”.
The commodity-linked currency hit a post-float high of US$1.10 in July and has slid to around 95 cents since then as investors flocked to safe-haven currencies and amid expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cuts.
FIIG Securities director of strategy and market development Stephen Nash said the Australian dollar could trend lower in the next few weeks.
“However any scope of easing (by the RBA) should be quite limited and this will mean that the Australian currency will remain one of the highest yielding currencies in the developed world. So that would mean scope for weakness in the Australian dollar should be limited,” he said.
“If there are any increased expectations in regards to global growth then the Australian dollar will probably go back up as well.”
