CPI inflation rose by 3.4 per cent in the 12 months to November 2025, down from 3.8 per cent in the previous month.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the monthly print for November showed CPI inflation was 3.4 per cent with the largest contribution coming from housing, food and non-alcoholic beverages and transport.
Housing rose by 5.2 per cent, food and non-alcoholic beverages by 3.3 per cent and transport by 2.7 per cent.
This was below analyst expectations which had forecast the ABS to report a November CPI of 3.6 per cent.
This is only the second month that CPI has been shared on a monthly basis after the first instance last month, replacing quarterly data as the primary headline inflation measure.
In the month of November, CPI was flat at 0 per cent and rose 0.2 per cent in seasonally-adjusted terms.
Trimmed mean inflation was 3.2 per cent in the 12 months to November 2025, down from 3.3 per cent in the 12 months to October 2025.
ABS head of prices statistics, Michelle Marquardt, said: “Having a monthly CPI means we can more clearly see temporary events such as Black Friday sales and compare them across time. In November 2024 and 2025, several goods categories had price falls including clothing, footwear and furniture.
“As the price falls this year were similar to last year, the Black Friday sales were not a major contributor to the change in annual CPI inflation from October to November.”
December’s CPI print will be published on 28 January.
Commenting on November’s data, VanEck deputy of investments & capital markets, Jamie Hannah, said the fall in inflation means a rate rise by the Reserve Bank of Australia now looks unlikely.
“After a steady climb over the second half of last year, it changed course in November, with headline inflation dropping to 3.4 per cent, and trimmed mean (the RBA’s preferred measure of inflation) coming in at 3.2 per cent. Had inflation continued to move north, this could have sealed the deal for a rate hike next month, which would be the first increase in more than two years.
“As it stands, the positive developments from today’s inflation print could be enough to keep the rate hike wolves at bay for now, but the outlook over 2026 is far from certain.
“After three rate cuts last year, the RBA is, at best, keeping any further movement on hold. It has, however, hinted at tightening in 2026. Inflation remains elevated, and between government energy rebates rolling off, higher tariffs flowing through to consumer prices, and geopolitical conflicts impacting major supply chains – not to mention the stickiness of services and housing inflation – keeping it on a tight leash this year will not be straightforward.”
Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC Economist at State Street Investment Management: “Today’s softer-than-expected CPI print is encouraging, but we anticipate some continued volatility in the data as the impact of electricity rebates gradually fades. This reinforces the case for the RBA to maintain its current stance for an extended period to assess how underlying trends evolve. Should the RBA wait for greater clarity, it could create policy space to ease policy in the second half of the year as inflation moderates and labor market conditions soften further.”
