The cryptocurrency shook off its slumber to hit a two-month high this week, fuelling analyst optimism for a run toward US$100,000 and beyond.
Bitcoin surged on 14 January (15 January AEST), breaking out of its recent range to briefly top US$96,000 before settling near US$95,000, according to BTC Markets.
The move marks what the firm’s head of finance, Charlie Sherry called a “decisive breakout” for the cryptocurrency, which had been stuck between US$92,000 and US$94,000 for weeks amid broader risk-off sentiment after touching US$100,000 on 14 November.
He attributed the rally – which also saw Ethereum and Solana rise around 5 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively – to a combination of macroeconomic developments, institutional flows and regulatory signals coming out of the US.
“On the macroeconomic front, December CPI data printed at 2.7 per cent headline and 2.6 per cent core, slightly better than expectations and easing concerns about persistent inflation.
“This has strengthened market confidence in a Federal Reserve pivot by mid-2026, with rate cuts potentially lowering policy rates to the 3.0-3.9 per cent range,” Sherry said, explaining that lower rates typically support risk assets by improving liquidity.
He added that institutional participation also boosted momentum, with spot bitcoin ETFs seeing roughly US$117 million in inflows on 12 January, reversing earlier outflows and signalling renewed confidence.
Meanwhile, the rally also comes as the US Senate Banking Committee released a draft crypto market structure bill on 13 January, which Sherry said had added to market optimism.
If enacted, he said the bill would allow major tokens such as XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, Litecoin, Hedera, and Chainlink to be exempt from SEC securities rules if they back ETFs listed by January 1, 2026. The bill categorises network tokens as commodities rather than securities, allows activity-based rewards on stablecoins and bans passive interest payments.
“Looking ahead, a sustained close above US$96,000-US$97,000 could pave the way for a move toward US$100,000,” Sherry asserted.
Echoing similar optimism, Edward Carroll, head of MHC Markets, also said the week’s developments bring US$100,000 back into view for the cryptocurrency.
Adding to Sherry’s list of catalysts, Carroll noted that part of the recent rally appears driven by market chatter about potential Iranian-linked bitcoin buying. Rising unrest in the country is reverberating through markets at present, pushing crude oil to a two-month high this week before falling after close on 14 January to wipe out a day of gains.
Beyond that, Carroll noted that the market appears to have bottomed, with lower lows absent after the recent sell-off, signaling easing selling pressure.
Like Sherry, he said a sustained break would be key for bitcoin’s continued upside, though he set the threshold slightly higher at above US$95,000 compared with Sherry’s US$94,400. He added that if this happens, it could clear the way for a move above US$100,000 “as soon as the end of the week”.
“Overall, we are very bullish from here. Price action looks increasingly constructive, supported by growing institutional participation as regulatory clarity continues to improve,” he said.
At the same time, Sherry acknowledged that bitcoin’s future still faces uncertainties, noting that if the key US$94,400 level fails to hold, it could signal a weak market and trigger a larger sell-off.
“Key near-term catalysts include upcoming SCOTUS [Supreme Court of the United States] tariff rulings and the January FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting, which could reinforce dovish expectations.”
However, he concluded that over the longer term, if rate cuts, ETF growth and regulatory clarity align, 2026 could represent a “significant expansion phase”, with targets above US$150,000.
