While gold continues to dominate headlines, Ninety One has flagged additional pockets of opportunity in natural resources for the year ahead.
Commodities are entering 2026 on firmer footing with gold and copper backed by strong structural drivers and potential recovery in oil and grain markets expected later in the year, according to Ninety One’s latest Natural Resources Outlook.
With tighter base-metal markets, shifting oil supply dynamics and a potential turn in grain balances, it said selectivity will be particularly crucial.
The firm’s outlook comes as gold hit record highs again this week amid US President Trump’s Greenland dispute, before paring back after he announced at Davos that he would no longer threaten additional tariffs on some European countries.
While Ninety One said that key drivers for the precious metal still look supportive, the firm also identified several other bright spots to watch among natural resources for the coming year.
The team is currently underweight energy and agriculture, overweight precious metals and broadly at-weight in base metals and bulks. However, each segment saw wide variation in asset quality, management strength, operational resilience and political risk.
Base metals and bulks
Among base metals, the firm’s natural resources portfolio manager, George Cheveley said copper remains the standout market after strong gains in 2025, supported by tight supply and robust demand due to its key role in electrification and AI.
“Against that backdrop, we think copper-exposed equities still have an attractive risk-reward profile,” Cheveley said.
As Global X previously noted, rising M&A activity has also fuelled the surge, with this month’s proposed $300 billion mega-merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore being the latest example.
Ninety One said that aluminium is also starting the year on solid footing, backed by demand growth and substitution from copper after a strong 2025. However, it noted that Indonesia’s rising output of the metal scheduled from 2027 threatens the medium-term outlook.
After iron-ore and coal were broadly flat in 2025, the firm said they are expected to trade sideways this year as new supply from the Simandou project in Guinea ramps up and China’s centralised buyer, China Mineral Resources Group, takes a more active role in the market.
Despite this, it said longer-term expectations for iron-ore prices remain conservative relative to production costs and demand trends.
Energy
In energy, the firm explained that oil markets currently look oversupplied as incremental Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) barrels are absorbed, with pricing likely to remain soft.
As a result, Ninety One’s natural resources portfolio manager, Paul Gooden said the team has taken an underweight position to start the year.
“Overall, we expect oil to find a bottom during the first half of 2026 and to recover later in the year as it becomes clear that both OPEC and US shale are operating near capacity. That could present an attractive entry point into oil-leveraged equities,” Gooden said.
Meanwhile, he highlighted the situation in Venezuela as adding uncertainty to the outlook, with oil prices falling sharply earlier this month after President Trump signalled an influx of oil into the market.
“The near-term implications are ambiguous, but the long-term implications for the oil price are negative as Venezuela has significant untapped reserves, although it would take several years to develop them.”
At the same time, Gooden said the implications for energy equities are “nuanced”, with select oil services companies and US refiners emerging as potential beneficiaries.
For natural gas, Ninety One was more clearly constructive on volumes as US demand continues to grow on the back of expanding LNG export capacity along the Gulf Coast and rising power needs from data centres.
“Within our energy holdings we have exposure towards companies that are positioned to benefit from this structural growth in gas volumes, and to companies where we are ‘paid to wait’ for the eventual recovery in oil prices,” Gooden added.
Agriculture
Finally, after grain markets were oversupplied in 2025 amid record harvests in the US and other major producers, Ninety One said there is room for balances to tighten this year.
“Low grain prices are already discouraging planting, particularly on marginal land. Early indications in the US point to more fallowing and a shift towards alternative crops.
“If that trend continues, we expect corn and soybean balances to tighten by the second half of 2026,” the firm’s natural resources portfolio manager, Dawid Heyl said.
The firm added that biofuels and feed will remain key drivers for the asset, noting the current US biofuel target implies higher production in 2026 than in 2025. Meanwhile, it said strong livestock prices are likely to encourage herd rebuilding, which will increase demand for feed-grain.
“Together, these dynamics suggest a more favourable environment for select agricultural equities as the year progresses.”
Gooden concluded that even when a commodity’s headline story looks positive, an active and highly selective approach will be essential going forward because company-level outcomes can vary widely.
“We want to be very deliberate about where we take risk, and ready to adjust as the year unfolds.”
