Barwon’s analysis of more than 300 global listed private equity exits since 2013 revealed that average uplifts have dropped from a historical 30 per cent to just 10 per cent since 2023, signalling a fundamental shift in how the market prices and transacts assets.
Barwon portfolio manager Bob Liu said the sharp decline reflect not just softer deal activity but deeper structural changes across the asset class.
He noted that private equity net asset values, once viewed as conservative, are becoming increasingly aligned with real-time market conditions as longer sale processes and greater buyer scrutiny feed into valuations earlier.
At the same time, traditional full cash exits are giving way to continuation vehicles, partial sales and equity rollovers, reducing the incentive to maximise headline premiums at exit.
Liu added that the rise of semi-liquid private equity funds is also reshaping valuation practices, with managers more frequently marking portfolios to market to meet redemption requirements and regulatory expectations.
Together, these shifts point to a more mature and transparent market – one in which consistently large exit premiums are less common, even if valuations themselves are not considered overstated.
Despite the narrowing uplifts, Barwon argued the listed private equity sector still offers compelling value, noting that many securities continue to trade at steep discounts to their reported net asset values, which currently average around 25 per cent.
This gap, the firm said, provides investors with a meaningful margin of safety at a time when diversified, liquid exposure to private equity is increasingly sought after.
Barwon’s Global Listed Private Equity Fund aims to capture that opportunity by giving wholesale investors access to a curated portfolio of global private equity names, combining valuation discipline with liquidity and structural diversification to navigate the asset class’s evolving landscape.
Industry observers said the recalibration of private equity exit dynamics is likely to persist as the market adjusts to higher funding costs, longer hold periods and increased regulatory scrutiny – factors that collectively reinforce the shift toward more measured valuations and more complex exit structures.
According to Bain & Company, there was a rebound in deal-making and exits in 2024, but their latest report warned that fundraising remains sluggish.
They highlight headwinds such as rising costs, intense competition and fee pressure for PE funds.
Meanwhile, KPMG’s Q3 2025 “Pulse of Private Equity” report showed global PE investment hit US$537.1 billion in 3Q25 across about 4,062 deals.
Their 2Q25 report also revealed a dip, with US$ 363.7 billion invested across around 3,769 deals.
