In a new ANZ report, Sleeping Giant: China’s Consumer, it was argued that China’s transition to a market-orientated economy, in addition to the country’s growing middle class, will provide Australia with significant opportunities.
The report found that China’s growing middle class is set to push the nation’s consumption as a portion of GDP up from 38 per cent currently, to almost 50 per cent within 15 years.
“By way of comparison, that means China’s consumption in 2030 would exceed GDP in the US today,” the report stated.
As a result, ANZ predicts that Australia’s exports to China could double to around $250 billion by 2030. The report also noted that disposable incomes within urban areas are expected to quadruple within this period.
“So we could be seeing the beginning of the most significant change in global consumption patterns since the rise of the US middle class at the turn of the 20th century,” the report said.
ANZ chief executive, international and institutional banking, Andrew Géczy said: “Growth in spending by China’s middle class will not only transform China’s economy and place it on a more sustainable path but [it] will rebalance the global economy.
“New export opportunities will emerge for Australian businesses particularly service providers, in tourism, education, financial services and healthcare.
“These opportunities will be supported by the recently signed China-Australia Free Trade Agreement,” he said.
ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said: “While Australia’s commodities will still be needed for China’s growing housing, infrastructure and energy markets, Australia needs to adapt to China’s new growth model by moving towards service exports.”
Moreover, the report pointed out that China’s economic rebalancing will pose challenges to the global economy.
On the downside, China’s move away from investment will mean lower global growth rates and fewer import opportunities into China.
Certain economies, particularly those within emerging Asia, will also enter a period of challenging structural adjustment.
