Central banks remain a key pillar of gold demand and the bull run is expected to continue into 2026 with gold prices averaging US$4,325 an ounce, fuelling ETF demand.
The firm expects gold to stay strong and reach new heights in the year ahead, supported by Trump’s pick for the next Fed chair – who markets expect will advocate for lower interest rates.
“Gold enters 2026 at record highs after an exceptional rally driven by strong central bank demand, macro uncertainty, and a shift in strategic asset allocation,” the firm said in its Commodities Outlook 2026.
“With the Fed set to cut rates and the US dollar likely to remain under pressure, this should be constructive for investment demand, while central banks are likely to continue adding to their reserves.”
The report notes that after a period of consolidation, physical gold ETFs and institutional investors are showing renewed interest.
“We expect ETF buying to pick up as the US Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates, with ETF buying usually closely linked to Fed policy.”
Global gold demand reached 1,313 tonnes in the third quarter of 2025, the strongest quarterly total on record, according to the World Gold Council. This was driven by robust investment demand across ETFs, bars and coins, alongside significant central bank buying.
ETF investors added 222 tonnes of physical gold, marking the biggest inflow in years. Bar and coin demand held firm at 316 tonnes, while central banks purchased 220 tonnes, up nearly 30 per cent from the second quarter, led by emerging markets.
In Australia, investors can access physical gold via ETFs such as Global X Physical Gold and iShares Physical Gold ETF.
“In Q3, central banks increased their buying pace following two consecutive quarters of slowing purchases. They bought an estimated 220 tonnes of gold in the quarter, 28 per cent higher than the Q2 total and 66 per cent above the five-year quarterly average.”
ETF provider Global X said rising gold prices provide a strong tailwind to EM consumer balance sheets, especially in India and China. November had seen a surge in precious metals, it said, with gold mining ETFs rising 15 per cent during the month.
“Higher gold prices should benefit producers, as well. Silver carries similar traits to gold but should prove more economically sensitive to cyclical recoveries.
“Copper would likely be a key beneficiary of any cyclical recovery, while robust structural demand (electrification, urbanization, and artificial intelligence) and a challenged supply outlook (declining grades, aging mines, and rising jurisdictional risk) should support prices throughout the cycle.”
Meanwhile, VanEck said gold miners were the strongest-performing sector in 2025 and present a “genuine opportunity” for the next 12 months.
Chief executive, Arian Neiron, said: “Gold miners, critical minerals and well-positioned small caps present genuine opportunities, particularly as commodities continue to underpin both growth and diversification.”
Energy and precious metals
ING heads into 2026 with a bearish stance on energy markets, however, expecting the global oil market to move into a large surplus as OPEC+ rapidly ramps up output amid modest demand growth.
ING’s commodities outlook highlights significant uncertainty around Russian oil supply following US sanctions.
“But as we move through 2026, markets will get a clearer picture of the full impact. For now, we believe the impact will be limited in the medium to long term,” the report said.
The surplus is expected to peak in the first half of 2026, and ING forecasts ICE Brent will average US$57 per barrel over the year.
“However, there is potential for greater volatility, given that OPEC’s spare production capacity has shrunk as the group has increased output.”
Downside risks include ongoing peace talks, which could lift certain sanctions on Russia and significantly reduce the supply risk currently hanging over the oil market which could push brent down to low $50s.
In 2026, oil demand growth is expected to come largely from non-OECD economies, especially Asia (excluding China), which will account for roughly half of global demand growth.
Global X added oil prices remain sensitive to changes in OPEC+ supply quotas in the short term, while the revival of nuclear power and constrained supply continue to support uranium market fundamentals.
ING also expects most base metals to remain well supported heading into 2026.
“Uncertainty over US refined copper tariffs will likely continue to see strong refined copper flows to the US, tightening up the ex-US market. Coinciding with tight copper concentration market.”
“Producers plan to impose record premiums on European and Asian customer
next year, effectively compensating for profits they could earn selling to the US.”
If Trump reverses tariffs on refined copper, large volumes of US stockpiles could return to the global market. “This would lead to a collapse of the COMEX premium, pushing US prices lower, and moving the global refined balance into a surplus.”
Near-term supply disruptions should keep a price floor around US$10,000/t.
“However, for the rally to extend, stronger demand – particularly from China, the largest consumer – will be crucial. For now, prices remain rangebound.”
