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Morningstar data finds Magnificent 7 success aligns with AI investment

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By Georgie Preston
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6 minute read

The success or decline of meg-cap tech stocks is being increasingly determined by AI adoption and insulation from geopolitical issues, new data shows.

In the thick of earnings season for the tech stocks, new data from the financial services firm reveals a shift in investor priorities over the last decade.

While Apple and Alphabet saw the biggest declines across the period, Microsoft remained steady, holding the largest share of ownership among the seven since 2018.

Meanwhile, Nvidia exploded from 1.17 per cent to 22 per cent ownership in global portfolios – rivalling Microsoft in its portfolio exposure.

 
 

Now the world’s most valuable company, Monika Calay, director of UK manager research at Morningstar, said the AI-chip heavyweight encapsulates the AI boom.

“Nvidia went from niche to necessary. The AI boom, combined with its dominance in GPUs, CUDA software and expansion into networking and services, has made it a top choice for funds chasing growth,” she said.

However, she added its vulnerability to US export restrictions on China demonstrates the threat of exposure to geopolitical tensions faced by tech companies.

Calay said this growing risk is similarly affecting Apple’s supply chain, as the company relies heavily on Taiwanese electronics manufacturers Foxconn and TSMC.

“[This means] any disruption between China, Taiwan, and the US could choke off production,” she said.

China’s discouragement of iPhone use among officials could also cast a shadow over future sales in one of the company’s biggest markets, she added.

While it remains a top holding for now, Apple’s prominence is waning. Its fund weight dropped to 16.11 per cent in 2025, down from a consistent 20 to 23 per cent, according to Morningstar data.

On the other hand, Alphabet also experienced declines, but Morningstar sees a brighter future ahead for the company, particularly owing to its renewed focus on AI.

“While it has lost ground in portfolio share, its recent earnings and product integration, AI Overviews and AI Mode, have reinforced its staying power,” she said.

Adding to this, Calay said the search engine’s enduring dominance in advertising is supported by the growth of Google Cloud and careful reinvestment.

According to Morningstar’s data, Microsoft stands out as the most consistent heavyweight, being the only member of the Magnificent Seven to maintain a minimum 20 per cent average weight in global equity portfolios every year for the past decade.

Calay attributed this success to the company striking the right balance between institutional confidence and a leading position in AI.

Just this week, Microsoft’s Azure cloud-computing business exceeded US$75 billion in full-year revenue, which many say was driven by the company’s substantial capital expenditure on AI initiatives.

Meanwhile, Calay explained that Meta’s success story – having bounced back after some years of doubt – impinges less on AI and more on growing advertising inventory.

This growth, she explained, is driven by the company’s “unmatched reach”, with nearly 4 billion monthly active users across its plethora of applications.

Among the other members, Tesla barely cracked a mention following its disappointing results reported last week, while Amazon’s position was found to be shrinking – from 15.59 per cent down to 12.45 per cent of fund ownership, according to Morningstar data.

Calay said the company’s performance has been mixed, with AWS and advertising experiencing growth, while the company’s emphasis on expanding fulfilment and logistics potentially impacting cash flow.

“For some of the Magnificent 7, [the future] means cementing their place at the top. For others, the next chapter remains unwritten,” she said.