Op-Ed But before we get too swept up in the campaign theatrics, let’s take a moment to assess the government’s economic report card.
Labor’s current grade? A solid C, if we’re being generous.
Sure, there have been some bright spots – low unemployment, a relatively stable economy – but when you peek behind the curtains, things get murky.
We’re hurtling toward $1 trillion in public debt, with little put aside for a rainy day. And while it hasn’t exactly poured, the clouds are certainly gathering.
Interest rates remain high, the cost of living continues to bite, and global economic uncertainty is a storm we can’t outrun forever.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver’s verdict? The government’s done “alright” – a five or six out of 10.
“It’s OK, not disastrous,” added Oliver.
Hardly the words you want to hear when you’re potentially finishing up a job. It’s the political equivalent of “you, just, met expectations” on a performance review – good enough to avoid immediate dismissal, but not exactly securing a promotion.
The real issue? Labor’s done nothing inspiring.
Their surpluses weren’t the result of bold economic management – they were fashioned through sheer good luck. In fact, if we were grading Labor’s luck, it would get an A – heck, an A+ – because that’s one thing this government hasn’t lacked.
So, as Australia prepares to elect its next government, the real question is: will we get a leader who aims for excellence, or are we stuck grading on a curve?
The ALP’s playbook
The Labor Party is sticking to its guns with bigger government, a higher tax share to eventually balance the budget, and a reliance on industry policies like “Future Made in Australia” and more regulation.
In his latest analysis, Oliver pointed out that the government has promised an additional $37 billion in spending over the next four years on areas like Medicare, roads, urgent care clinics, the NBN, public schools, and the nationalisation of Whyalla steelworks, along with surprise tax cuts and extended electricity rebates.
The Coalition’s response
On Thursday night, we heard Peter Dutton’s plans to strengthen the economy.
His answer to culling inflation? Cull the government workforce. His solution for cheaper power? A vague plan to rack up domestic gas reserves. And as for a stable economy? Well, that involves cutting migration, alongside less regulation, less “red and green” tape.
Verdict?
According to Oliver, while the Coalition is getting closer, neither side is really committing to a reform agenda to put the economy on a stronger path.
For him, what’s missing are the bold decisions made in the Hawke/Keating era, when the government had the political courage to make tough calls.
Oliver’s advice for the next PM? Take a good, hard look at the graph showing household disposable income per person – it’s been stuck in neutral for the past 10 years. Find out what’s causing it, and fix it.
Other pearls of wisdom: boost productivity and get the budget under control.
These aren’t necessarily the headline-grabbing measures you’ll hear about on the campaign trail, but over time, they’re the things that really matter.
Final piece of advice? “Survive Trump” by strengthening the economy without veering into protectionism.
As we head to the polls, the stakes are high, so let’s hope the next government can do more than just “get by”.
