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Rebirth of an old world order

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By Stephen Blaxhall
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2 minute read

Many of the so called emerging markets are just old economic powerhouses finding their feet again, according to Aberdeen Asset Management associate director Stuart James.

Many of the so called emerging markets are just old economic powerhouses finding their feet again, according to Aberdeen Asset Management associate director Stuart James.

"These markets are simply coming back to regain their old territory," James said.

"Two hundred and fifty years ago China represented around a third of the world economy, but after 30 years of communism that had fallen to only two per cent, while in the 1920's Argentina had a larger market cap than the UK," he said.

Emerging markets have grown by over seven per cent in the last five years, compared to developed markets that have expanded by a relatively modest 2.3 per cent, while a recent Goldman Sachs survey forecasts that the Chinese economy will have overtaken that of the U.S. by 2050.

Looking forward the International Monetary Fund is predicting that over the next five years emerging markets will continue to grow at a rate of around 6.8 per cent verses the developed markets at 2.7 per cent.

"If that rate continues today's emerging markets will represent two thirds of the world economy within 20 years," James said.

Currently the emerging market countries represent 51 per cent of the world's economy, represent 43 per cent of the world's exports, up from around 20 per cent in 1970 and 60 per cent of the words foreign exchange.

Emerging markets also currently represent 80 per cent of the world's population.