Weak growth ahead in 2016, says SSGA

Weak growth ahead in 2016, says SSGA

The "lacklustre" growth of 2015 is likely to continue throughout the next 12 months, with the performance of the major economies unlikely to see much improvement, says State Street Global Advisors (SSGA).


Speaking at an event in Sydney, SSGA chief economist Chris Probyn said conditions are unlikely to see much improvement over this year with the major advanced economies suffering from a loss of momentum.

“My theme for 2016 is more of the same: lacklustre growth, low inflation and very limited policy tightening,” he said.

Mr Probyn said while the domestically focused sectors are limiting any downside, the weakness of manufacturing in the major economies seem to limiting any upside in returns.

“Moreover we continue to see the risks skewed to the downside, likely fuelling bouts of investor uncertainty and market volatility,” he said.

In its 2016 Global Market Outlook, SSGA said it believed European and Japanese equities were showing some life, however.

“Pan-European trade is picking up and German business sentiment surveys point to solid cyclical growth,” said the report.

“Europe is a large net importer of commodities, and therefore lower input costs will improve European corporate profits.”

However, it still has a lower forecast for returns due to the previous relative outperformance of Europe compared to its peers, and the fact the UK has a higher exposure to energy stock.

“In Japan, the Abenomics fiscal and reform program appear to finally be generating a pickup in growth and inflation,” SSGA said.

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