RBA to 'wait and watch', says HSBC

RBA to 'wait and watch', says HSBC

After delivering 50 basis points of cuts in the first half of 2015, the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely keep rates on hold in its meeting tomorrow, says HSBC.


HSBC's The RBA Observer, released on Friday and penned by the bank's chief economist for Australia and New Zealand Paul Bloxham, noted that the RBA's "rebalancing act" continued in June.

The first quarter of 2015's GDP figures confirmed that household consumption is growing solidly, and dwelling investment is in a strong upswing, Mr Bloxham said.

"The lift in these areas has more than offset the drag from falling mining and public investment," he said.

The RBA rate cuts in February and May have predictably led to a "further lift" in the housing market, and business surveys showed improving conditions and confidence in May, Mr Bloxham said.

"The clearest sign of improving conditions has been in the labour market, with jobs growth running at a three-and-a-half-year high of two per cent year-on-year in May," he said.

"The lift in activity and steadying of the unemployment rate are expected to keep the RBA on hold this month.

"If these improving trends continue, as is our central case, we expect that the RBA will not need to deliver further cuts in this easing phase.

"The combination of having already delivered 50 basis points of cuts in the first half of 2015 and the more positive domestic numbers are expected to keep the RBA firmly on hold next week.

"We expect the RBA to be in 'wait and watch' mode, as it seeks more information about the full impact of the cuts it has already delivered this year," Mr Bloxham said.

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