Auscap Asset Management has expressed optimism that Australia and its listed gold miners will remain key beneficiaries of the “modern-day gold rush”, with gold poised to become the nation’s second most valuable export after iron ore if current prices hold.
Tim Carleton, chief investment officer at Auscap, said the move in the gold price has been “extraordinary”.
As at mid-October 2025, the precious metal has gained US$1,000, or 32 per cent, in less than two months, and US$2,500, or 141 per cent, over the past two years. Since the end of 2015, gold has gained more than 318 per cent to its recent peak of US$4,381 before easing to around US$4,000.
“The question is whether the gold price can continue rising, or whether the laws of demand and supply will ensure a reversal,” Carleton said.
While jewellery once accounted for nearly half of total above-ground stocks, he noted the current rally has been driven primarily by investors and central banks.
In the first half of 2025, more than 60 per cent of global gold demand came from investment, compared to an average of 42 per cent between 2010 and 2023.
“There are multiple reasons given for central bank and investor demand, including diversifying away from the US dollar, a hedge against inflation, a hedge against other asset classes and US dollar weakness to name but a few,” Carleton said.
On the supply side, annual global gold production has risen modestly, adding about 1.8 per cent to total stocks over the past decade. Even a doubling in output, Carleton noted, would still see global supply grow by less than 4 per cent per year—insufficient to offset surging demand and price momentum.
Australia, meanwhile, has emerged as a major winner from the boom. The federal government has forecast gold export earnings to hit $60 billion in 2025–26, overtaking LNG to become the country’s second-largest export.
In 2024, Australia ranked as the world’s third-largest gold producer with a 7.8 per cent share of global output—a figure expected to climb as production expands.
The Minerals Council of Australia has projected output to reach 369 tonnes in FY2026–27, potentially positioning Australia ahead of China as the world’s second-largest producer.
Carleton described the current rally as the third major gold boom since the dismantling of the Bretton Woods system in 1971.
“In the 1970s gold gained 19-fold in 10 years. The next major rally occurred from the early 2000s to a peak in 2011, when the gold price went up seven-fold in a ten-year period,” he said, adding that today’s four-fold rise since 2015 could suggest “more in the gold rally to come”.
The surge in prices has translated into windfall gains for Australian gold miners. Auscap said a gold price above US$4,000 an ounce should deliver “extraordinary profitability” for local producers, lifting return on capital and cash generation for years ahead.
“With demand likely to remain strong, a continued rise in the price of gold cannot be discounted,” Carleton said. “Should the rally continue, Australian miners will be significant beneficiaries.”
The market value of ASX-listed gold miners has jumped from $45 billion at the start of 2024 to $146 billion, excluding Newcrest Mining, which was acquired by Newmont Corporation in late 2023. Over the same period, Newmont’s market capitalisation has climbed to $165 billion from $70 billion.
There are now nine ASX-listed gold companies worth more than $5 billion—up from just two at the end of 2023—each now larger than firms such as Treasury Wines, Bank of Queensland and Ansell.
Auscap’s own funds—the Auscap High Conviction Australian Equities Fund and the Auscap Ex-20 Australian Equities Fund—hold stakes in several ASX-listed gold miners, including Genesis Minerals and Northern Star Resources, which Carleton said have “higher quality, lower cost mining operations with strong growth potential and disciplined management teams”. These holdings were among the funds’ strongest contributors to returns in September 2025.
