The second half of 2026 is shaping up to be busy for Australian markets, driven by a backlog of investor demand and companies looking to IPO, with technology, biotech and AI firms likely to lead activity.
In a new report, Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer said geopolitical uncertainty curtailed the number of early IPOs expected to hit the ASX at the start of the year.
Philippa Stone, partner and head of capital markets at HSF Kramer, said discussions with IPO market participants point to rising confidence in both the pipeline and the companies within it.
“Despite current market conditions, we’re seeing a greater preparedness, both from founders and private capital owners of IPO candidates, to undertake a listing this year rather than simply defaulting to a private market solution or a continuation of the status quo,” Stone said.
Heightened geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, has weighed on market confidence, with oil prices, inflation and interest rates adding further uncertainty.
“As a result, our sense is that the majority of IPO candidates are taking a more cautious approach to launching early-year processes, with activity increasingly expected to concentrate in the second half of 2026 as greater macro-economic clarity emerges. Notwithstanding near-term volatility, we expect ASIC’s fast-track IPO reforms to act as a meaningful tailwind for the Australian IPO market in 2026,” the Navigating Crosswinds: The Australian ECM Review 2025 report said.
ASIC’s fast-track process, introduced in June 2025, aims to provide a clearer and faster path from disclosure lodgement to listing for eligible entities, and is expected to support IPO candidates in volatile conditions.
A key benefit – first seen in GemLife’s IPO led by HSF Kramer – is shortening the period during which investors are ‘on risk’ before securities begin trading, particularly important in volatile markets.
HSF Kramer partner Tim McEwen said technology, biotech and AI firms are likely to dominate IPO activity in 2026, alongside continued issuance across metals and mining, healthcare, life sciences and pharmaceuticals.
“Across sectors, issuers with defensible earnings, structural growth drivers, or lower sensitivity to global macro-economic and political volatility are likely to be best placed to access capital, particularly if uncertainty continues to influence global equity market sentiment,” McEwen said.
The firm said private capital will continue to pursue exits via strategic sales or private markets, but improving IPO conditions could see more mature assets return to public markets – provided global conditions remain stable.
“We also expect to see a strengthening in secondary market activity in 2026, assuming current global tensions do not lead to a major market correction,” HSF Kramer said.
There were 40 IPOs in 2025, up from 26 in 2024 and 32 in 2023, while average capital raised per IPO more than doubled from $43.9 million to almost $116.7 million. The largest listings included GemLife, Virgin Australia and Greatland Resources.
Michael Ziegelaar, partner at HSF Kramer, said: “The lower volume of IPOs over the last few years has left a backlog of companies held beyond their intended cycle, creating pressure for private capital to seek liquidity.
“Private equity firms are also considering public market valuations in a new light, recognising the emerging trend that pricing outcomes are diverging between public and private markets depending on the asset and sector.”
The resources sector again dominated Australia’s IPO and secondary raising markets in 2025, reinforcing the ASX’s position as a leading global hub for resources capital.
Of the 40 IPOs completed, 23 were resources companies – mostly exploration plays – with foreign issuers making up six of those deals, including companies from Canada, the United States and the UK.
“This indicates the ASX’s ongoing apparel for resource-focused companies seeking both capital and enhanced investor visibility,” the report said.
Commodity exposure within the IPO cohort mirrored broader market trends.
“Sixteen IPOs involved companies with a gold focus, benefiting from gold’s appeal as a safe haven asset and resultant record pricing.”
While early 2026 has seen some commodity price volatility, HSF Kramer still expects continued equity capital markets activity in the resources sector, given its capital-intensive nature.
“Although the recent conflict in the Middle East has seen gold and silver prices fall from their recent highs, prices for gold and silver remain strong by historic standards and the geopolitical factors that have driven the price increases observed over the last two years look set to continue,” it said.
ASIC turned its focus to Australia’s public markets in 2025, consulting with industry before releasing its Roadmap for public and private markets in November.
The regulator acknowledged the importance of public markets to the economy and outlined reforms aimed at improving their attractiveness. However, HSF Kramer partner Philip Hart said there is a “natural limit” to what ASIC can achieve without legislative change or action from market operators.
“Where possible, we’re hopeful that ASIC will use its influence to encourage lawmakers, market operators, and other regulators to follow its lead,” he said.
“Nevertheless, we regard the Roadmap, and the industry engagement process that preceded it, as a step in the right direction.”
At a recent ASX roundtable featuring Pendal, Evans & Partners, and Perennial Private, Perennial Partners portfolio manager Karen Chan said AI remains a strong theme across both private and public markets.
“We’ve seen Firmus Technologies and Sharon AI come to market with pre-IPOs, which were very heavily supported with investor demand. Public markets support has also seen Sharon AI debuted on the NASDAQ in mid-February with plans for a secondary listing on ASX in 1H 2026.”
Chan said neocloud and data centres are attracting growing late-stage interest, as investors focus on the infrastructure layer, supported by offshore listed comparables.
“More recently, we’ve seen a rotation out of software-as-a-service stocks with nearly US$1 trillion wiped from software and services stocks since Anthropic launched Claude Cowork in early February,” Chan said.
“Where AI was a tailwind for software, investors are now working through the longer-term impact. Like all disruptive technology, there will be both winners and losers. Earlier stage investors are not also interested in the AI application layer. In the US, we’re hearing OpenAI and Anthropic may IPO as well.”
