AllianceBernstein senior economist for the Asia Pacific Guy Bruten and senior economist for Asia Anthony Chan said the “dispersion” seen in Asia during 2014 will be a “key macro trend” in 2015.
“That [means], the disparities between various countries or economic regions in terms of growth and monetary policy, and corresponding differences in the direction of many financial markets,” the economists said.
“One generalisation that may safely be made is that the subdued growth outlook and the fall in oil prices will help hold inflation in check, and give central banks room where necessary to keep monetary policy accommodative,” Mr Bruten said.
Mr Chan pointed out that one source of “upside surprise” during 2015 could be the role India and Indonesia play in the region.
“[Also] the extent to which they – in the context of continuing weakness in the euro-area and Japan – could lead to an investor re-rating of Asia,” Mr Chan said.
Mr Chan also said China’s ability to avoid a hard economic landing will be seen as increasingly important.
“Our view is that China is likely to make a ‘long’ landing, by muddling through to recovery in two to three years – assuming that the government makes no policy mistakes,” Mr Chan said.
