Global investors should prepare for a more volatile second half of 2026 by broadening portfolios beyond traditional equity winners, according to Amundi, which warns geopolitical tensions, inflation risks and concentrated AI exposure are creating a more challenging investment environment.
In its 2026 Mid-Year Global Investment Outlook, Power of Endurance, the asset manager said the global economy had remained resilient despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty, supported by AI investment and spending linked to strategic autonomy.
However, it warned the coming months would test how much economic and market disruption investors could withstand.
Amundi’s central scenario assumes a fragile de-escalation in tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, with oil prices expected to settle at around US$80-90 a barrel by the end of the year. While the firm believes this would help the global economy avoid recession, it has nevertheless trimmed most of its economic growth forecasts.
The investment house said central banks were likely to prioritise containing inflation over supporting economic growth, expecting the US Federal Reserve and most major emerging market central banks to remain on hold, while forecasting one additional rate increase from the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan before year end.
Amundi also outlined a downside scenario in which renewed conflict in the Middle East or a sharp correction in AI-related markets could trigger higher inflation and recession risks, while an upside scenario would see a more durable reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing inflation and lifting consumer and investor confidence.
Head of Amundi Investment Institute, Monica Defend, said investors were entering a markedly different market regime.
“Investors face a world in which the independence of central banks is being tested, inflation is more volatile, and concentration risks are growing. The best portfolios for this new regime can withstand different scenarios: they need to be diversified across currencies, invested in real assets and gold, and explore equity sectors and structural themes with discipline.”
Rather than adopting a defensive stance, Amundi said investors should selectively reallocate risk by favouring resilient earnings, pricing power and long-term structural themes, including strategic autonomy, geopolitical realignment and AI deployment beyond the technology sector.
The report argued that opportunities in AI were broadening beyond semiconductor manufacturers into energy, infrastructure, software, robotics and industrial applications, while Europe’s push for defence, energy security and infrastructure investment was creating a multi-year capital expenditure cycle.
Group chief investment officer, Vincent Mortier, said the AI investment story was entering a new phase.
“As the AI story shifts from who can build the frontier to who can scale it, investing will be about seeking breadth across the full value chain and diversifying against technological, geopolitical and physical risks.”
Beyond equities, Amundi recommended investors remain flexible in fixed income, favouring European bonds, inflation-linked securities and investment-grade credit, while increasing allocations to infrastructure, private debt, commodities and gold as traditional portfolio hedges become less reliable.
The firm also highlighted selective opportunities in emerging markets, particularly among commodity exporters and technology-driven Asian economies, while maintaining a neutral view on China and a positive outlook for India despite higher energy costs.
