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Morningstar



Stock of the week


Current

Australian Infrastructure Fund (AIX)

DPU cut with large rights issue, but HDF upside

AIX is making a 1-for-2 rights issue at $1.10, fully underwritten but non-renounceable. It raises a net $203m, about 50% each from institutions and retail. Record date is 23 June. Institutions already subscribed for $106m gross. The retail offer is from 26 June to 10 July. AIX also declared an estimated final FY09 DPU of 5c, payable around 31 August. Guidance for the FY10 DPU is for just 10c. Henceforth, DPU will match operating cash flow and dividend payments. AIX's airport passenger traffic this half remains weak.
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Previous

AGL Energy Limited (AGK)

Waiting for the right opportunity

Now that the NSW budget is out with confirmation of large deficits for at least the next two years the sale of the retail energy assets will come to the fore. The three electricity retailers for sale - Energy Australia, Integral Energy and Country Energy - service about 4.5 million customers. The Tripodi travelling troupe traipsed around the globe looking for potential buyers but realistically the logical buyers reside in Sydney - AGL Energy and Origin Energy. Both are conservative and it is unlikely bids for the retail energy assets will be aggressive. AGK has also successfully refinanced 2009 and 2010 debt maturity obligations. New facilities totalling $800m in two tranches now mature in June 2012.
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CSL Limited (CSL)

Talecris is off the agenda back to the fundamentals

Talecris says 'based on a careful analysis of the situation and all alternatives available, it believes that termination of the merger agreement is in the best interest of all parties'. CSL will buy back 54.8m shares representing 9% of the current shares on issue. This is the maximum a company can do without going to shareholders for approval.
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QBE Insurance Group Limited (QBE)

Strong A$ creating havoc with guidance

The strength of the A$ is proving a real nuisance. The strength or volatility in the A$ is playing havoc with QBE's sensitive Gross Written Premium (GWP) and Net Earned Premium (NEP) guidance. It impacts the underwriting profit, insurance profit/margin and ultimately NPAT estimates. Currency movements impact premium income when translated into A$. With operations in 45 countries approximately 76% of QBE GWP revenue is derived in currencies other than A$. A 5% movement in A$ against all currencies is estimated to impact projected FY09 NPAT by around $80m. The largest exposures are to US$ and £Stg. QBE's FY09 GWP and NEP growth forecasts are based on A$/US$ of 0.68 and A$/£Stg 0.45. The A$ is currently near 0.81US$ and 0.50 versus £Stg.
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Telstra Corporation Limited (TLS)

Peacemaker in the NBN minefield

New CEO David Thodey and Chairman Catherine Livingstone are faced with a quandary of massive proportions. Firstly, do they reaffirm the forecasts of Sol Trujillo for FY10 or establish a new earnings and free cash flow blue print? Secondly, how do they repair the damage the abrasive dynamic duo Trujillo and McGauchie have done to relations with the government while negotiating a way through the complex and emotional NBN minefield without Telstra shareholders suffering more collateral damage?
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